Only a week and two days to reach October 7 and nerves are running high. At this moment a fair stance is a neutral one: the race is not clear neither for the incumbent nor his opponent. However, at this precise moment I´m inclined to believe Capriles has the weather gage.
Recently, some of the polling firms that show Capriles winning have published detailed reports of the studies they´ve carried out along September. Just to mention one, here are the numbers state by state of the last field study by the respected polling firm Datos-Interdata,
ESTADO POR ESTADO A ESCALA NACIONAL
|ENTIDAD||ENCUESTADOS||NO CONTESTA||CONTESTAN||POR CHAVEZ||%||POR CAPRILES||%|
Here’s my brief qualitative analysis on these figures: first, it’s not far-fetched to imply that Capriles is winning by a large margin in Zulia, Tachira and Miranda but that he is to suffer a heavy defeat in rural states like Apure and Portuguesa. On the other hand, it’s also reasonable to believe he is ahead in states with large cities such as Anzoategui, Carabobo, Lara and Merida which have a large concentration of voters who have likely been affected by crime, continous electric shortages and less employment.
Thus, at least this pollster’s results, which show Capriles ahead by 4 points, “feels” much trustworthy.
Still, a series of polling firms continue giving Chavez a “comfortable” lead which is not comforting at all. Some, like Hinterlaces and Jesse Chacon’s firm are already declaring the president winner. But this might all be a masquerade in light of a strong opposition, which clearly presents a threat to Chavista Hegemony.
At least my spirits are higher than a few days ago, when pollsters got together and all but one declared results that favored Chavez. Being a conservative fella I’d rather stick to my doubts and not get overexcited. Hey, but that’s me.