So it seems – hay un camino!

Only a week and two days to reach October 7 and nerves are running high. At this moment a fair stance is a neutral one: the race is not clear neither for the incumbent nor his opponent. However, at this precise moment I´m inclined to believe Capriles has the weather gage.

Recently, some of the polling firms that show Capriles winning have published detailed reports of the studies they´ve carried out along September. Just to mention one, here are the numbers state by state of the last field study by the respected polling firm Datos-Interdata,

ESTADO POR ESTADO A ESCALA NACIONAL

ENTIDAD ENCUESTADOS NO CONTESTA CONTESTAN POR CHAVEZ % POR CAPRILES %
AMAZONAS 96 6 90 54 60,46% 36 39,54%
ANZOATEGUI 1.007 8 999 455 45,61% 546 54,39%
APURE 310 3 307 185 60,34% 122 39,66%
ARAGUA 1.165 7 1158 595 51,38% 563 48,62%
BARINAS 525 9 516 291 56,34% 225 43,66%
BOLIVAR 942 10 932 441 47,38% 490 52,62%
CARABOBO 1.516 44 1.472 676 45,76% 799 54,24%
COJEDES 223 5 218 128 58,72% 90 41,28%
DELTA AMACURO 113 6 107 63 59,08% 44 40,92%
DISTRITO FEDERAL 1.609 33 1.576 794 50,38% 782 49,62%
FALCON 635 45 590 308 52,31% 281 47,69%
GUARICO 501 41 460 265 57,63% 195 42,69%
LARA 1.198 12 1.186 541 45,60% 645 54,40%
MERIDA 577 10 567 261 45,99% 645 54,40%
MIRANDA 1951 36 1915 810 42,31% 1.105 57,69%
MONAGAS 595 9 586 308 52,52% 278 47,48%
N. ESPARTA 330 12 318 134 42,18% 184 57,82%
PORTUGUESA 578 11 567 337 59,55% 229 40,45%
SUCRE 628 5 623 320 51,37% 303 48,63%
TACHIRA 799 6 793 332 41,86% 461 58,14%
TRUJILLO 502 12 490 274 55,97% 216 44,03%
VARGAS 266 15 251 145 57,65% 106 42,35%
YARACUY 405 23 382 205 53,61% 177 46,39%
ZULIA 2.335 59 2.276 933 40,98% 1.343 59,02%
TOTALES 18.803 427 18.376 8.852 48% 9.522 52%

Here’s my brief qualitative analysis on these figures: first, it’s not far-fetched to imply that Capriles is winning by a large margin in Zulia, Tachira and Miranda but that he is to suffer a heavy defeat in rural states like Apure and Portuguesa.  On the other hand, it’s also reasonable to believe he is ahead in states with large cities such as Anzoategui, Carabobo, Lara and Merida which have a large concentration of voters who have likely been affected by crime, continous electric shortages and less employment.

Thus, at least this pollster’s results, which show Capriles ahead by 4 points, “feels” much trustworthy.

Still, a series of polling firms continue giving Chavez a “comfortable” lead which is not comforting at all. Some, like Hinterlaces and Jesse Chacon’s firm are already declaring the president winner. But this might all be a masquerade in light of a strong opposition, which clearly presents a threat to Chavista Hegemony.

At least my spirits are higher than a few days ago, when pollsters got together and all but one declared results that favored Chavez. Being a conservative fella I’d rather stick to my doubts and not get overexcited. Hey, but that’s me.

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